BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 19 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

All regionsCentral Mixed Grass PrairieGeneralists

House Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie has collapsed: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-82%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
121Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Central Mixed Grass Prairie: down 82% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±112.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–19). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±112.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0019
20260.000.0019
20270.000.0019
20280.000.0019
20290.000.0019

Routes In Central Mixed Grass Prairie

Routes recording House Sparrow in Central Mixed Grass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ChapmanKANSAS1321981
ColonyOKLAHOMA1291995
GrayKANSAS1062019
LibertyNEBRASKA762003
WellingtonKANSAS682024
KearneyNEBRASKA622024
WallTEXAS552022
CoatsKANSAS502019
BerwetKANSAS502024
HawleyTEXAS482024
CovertKANSAS442024
SicklesOKLAHOMA432021
StrattonNEBRASKA402024
ElginOKLAHOMA402016
CashionOKLAHOMA382024
SurpriseNEBRASKA342024
BeaverOKLAHOMA342018
SumnerNEBRASKA312024
BartlettNEBRASKA311976
DaltonKANSAS302024
KenesawNEBRASKA302024
HunterOKLAHOMA302024
HaysKANSAS292014
RexfordKANSAS292024
ArthurNEBRASKA272024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.