BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 31 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Peninsular Florida

All regionsPeninsular FloridaGeneralists

House Sparrow in Peninsular Florida has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Peninsular Florida: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±305.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±305.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Peninsular Florida is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 4.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±305.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0015
20260.000.0015
20270.000.0015
20280.000.0015
20290.000.0015

Routes In Peninsular Florida

Routes recording House Sparrow in Peninsular Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BrowardFLORIDA2161973
RedlandsFLORIDA1242024
KendallFLORIDA391991
Boca RatonFLORIDA371994
Dale MabryFLORIDA271988
Vero BeachFLORIDA222002
Shawano 2FLORIDA172007
SalvistaFLORIDA161979
KissimmeeFLORIDA162022
Pennywash CrFLORIDA121989
Ridge HarborFLORIDA92024
Myakka HeadFLORIDA72011
Pleasant GrFLORIDA72009
CroomFLORIDA72024
St AugustineFLORIDA51989
MabelFLORIDA52005
PinecrestFLORIDA51974
DavieFLORIDA52017
Citrus ParkFLORIDA52024
TamiamiFLORIDA41974
AndytownFLORIDA41983
St LucieFLORIDA42005
Key LargoFLORIDA41991
Lake BuffumFLORIDA42024
Plantation KFLORIDA31983

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.