BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±96.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 4.5 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±96.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.870.008.1
20270.610.007.8
20280.350.007.6
20290.090.007.3
20300.000.007.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA862022
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA672025
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA412004
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA392025
DwyerWYOMING372025
JordanMONTANA332024
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA272025
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA262025
WinifredMONTANA202023
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA202022
VolunteerSOUTH-DAKOTA202025
CusterMONTANA192022
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA192024
Caballa CrkWYOMING192025
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA182025
ClarkelenWYOMING171978
HighlightWYOMING152007
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA132011
LacreekSOUTH-DAKOTA112025
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA102024
Cedar PassSOUTH-DAKOTA102025
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA102013
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA92025
RecluseWYOMING92022
GorhamNORTH-DAKOTA82025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.