BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies has fallen sharply: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-56%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
101Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Badlands and Prairies: down 56% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 5.8 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–7.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.008.1
20260.610.007.9
20270.340.007.6
20280.080.007.3
20290.000.007.2

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording House Sparrow in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA942024
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA862022
BowmanNORTH-DAKOTA512024
NewcastleWYOMING442024
Ft YatesNORTH-DAKOTA412004
JordanMONTANA332024
DaytonWYOMING282024
SolenNORTH-DAKOTA262024
WinifredMONTANA202023
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA202022
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA202023
CusterMONTANA192022
BentleyNORTH-DAKOTA192024
ClarkelenWYOMING171978
Dunn CenterNORTH-DAKOTA152024
HighlightWYOMING152007
KayceeWYOMING152024
CarsonNORTH-DAKOTA132024
Ft ThompsonSOUTH-DAKOTA132011
ZapNORTH-DAKOTA102024
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA102013
DwyerWYOMING102016
RecluseWYOMING92022
CusterSOUTH-DAKOTA82024
UptonWYOMING81994

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.