BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 24 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Central Hardwoods

All regionsCentral HardwoodsGeneralists

House Sparrow in Central Hardwoods has collapsed: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-84%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Central Hardwoods: down 84% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–2195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Central Hardwoods is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–21). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0021
20260.000.0021
20270.000.0021
20280.000.0021
20290.000.0021

Routes In Central Hardwoods

Routes recording House Sparrow in Central Hardwoods.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BoxvilleKENTUCKY2021983
YorkILLINOIS1372024
WashingtonINDIANA892024
Cole CampMISSOURI801990
CumbackINDIANA652021
LeveeKENTUCKY591982
ShelbyvilleKENTUCKY581978
BirdsILLINOIS532024
NewberryINDIANA532024
RoyaltonILLINOIS512024
SpencerINDIANA512024
FarwellARKANSAS442018
RichlandMISSOURI412021
CyprssINDIANA392024
JohnsonvilleKENTUCKY382021
MillersburgINDIANA372024
ScottsburgINDIANA372024
SedaliaMISSOURI372024
HillsboroALABAMA351996
MillionKENTUCKY341986
CelestineINDIANA312024
Cave In RockILLINOIS302024
Hodgenville 2KENTUCKY302023
HodgenvilleKENTUCKY272003
KeysburgKENTUCKY242024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.