BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 37 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Gulf Coastal Prairie

All regionsGulf Coastal PrairieGeneralists

House Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie has collapsed: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-90%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
43Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Gulf Coastal Prairie: down 90% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–7895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±325.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 9.7 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–78). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±325.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0078
20260.000.0078
20270.000.0078
20280.000.0078
20290.000.0078

Routes In Gulf Coastal Prairie

Routes recording House Sparrow in Gulf Coastal Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MamouLOUISIANA971982
VanderbiltTEXAS901976
CreoleLOUISIANA831987
Lag AtascosaTEXAS552024
Gran ChenierLOUISIANA381982
Forked Island 2LOUISIANA342011
LafitteLOUISIANA291991
Ville PlatteLOUISIANA282019
Loyola BeachTEXAS272009
KatyTEXAS232024
JuniorLOUISIANA191991
Forked IslandLOUISIANA182024
Loyola Beach 2TEXAS182024
McfaddinTEXAS162016
Hackberry 2LOUISIANA132024
Rock IslandTEXAS132024
MauriceLOUISIANA122024
EstherLOUISIANA102024
RichardLOUISIANA102024
IndianolaTEXAS102014
Port AcresTEXAS102024
Oyster LakeTEXAS82023
HackberryLOUISIANA72014
KaplanLOUISIANA72023
Goliad PrairieTEXAS72016

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.