BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has increased: up 32% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+32%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 3.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+24%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.8–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 24% by 2029 — from 8.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 10.0 (95% range 3.8–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20259.73.516
20269.83.616
20279.83.716
20289.93.716
202910.03.816

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DemingNEW-MEXICO511975
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO442024
CanutilloTEXAS412024
GirvinTEXAS382024
MesillaNEW-MEXICO312000
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO302024
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO261977
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO202023
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO162019
Ft. StocktonTEXAS162023
Sierra BlancTEXAS152024
JornadaNEW-MEXICO142024
RoswellNEW-MEXICO122023
RodeoNEW-MEXICO122024
ComstockTEXAS112023
MarathonTEXAS112023
CornudasTEXAS102015
GageNEW-MEXICO92024
PresidioTEXAS72023
Van HornTEXAS72024
QueenNEW-MEXICO62021
OzonaTEXAS62004
Red RockNEW-MEXICO52024
PinonNEW-MEXICO52024
Lake ValleyNEW-MEXICO42024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.