BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 35 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert

All regionsChihuahuan DesertGeneralists

House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert has risen sharply: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+57%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
45Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has risen sharply in Chihuahuan Desert: up 57% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow In Chihuahuan Desert Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+11%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
10Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
4.2–1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert is projected to rise about 11% by 2030 — from 9.3 in 2025 to a central estimate of 10 (95% range 4.2–16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026103.916
2027104.016
2028104.016
2029104.116
2030104.216

Routes In Chihuahuan Desert

Routes recording House Sparrow in Chihuahuan Desert.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Bitter LakeNEW-MEXICO732025
DemingNEW-MEXICO511975
JornadaNEW-MEXICO382025
ColumbusNEW-MEXICO322025
MesillaNEW-MEXICO312000
Laborcita 2NEW-MEXICO302025
San AntonioNEW-MEXICO261977
Van HornTEXAS212025
GirvinTEXAS182025
MarathonTEXAS182025
CanutilloTEXAS172025
LaborcitaNEW-MEXICO162019
PresidioTEXAS152025
RodeoNEW-MEXICO142025
RoswellNEW-MEXICO102025
CornudasTEXAS102015
Sierra BlancTEXAS102025
Quitman Canyon 2TEXAS92025
Red RockNEW-MEXICO62025
QueenNEW-MEXICO62021
OzonaTEXAS62004
PinonNEW-MEXICO52024
Sunshine WllNEW-MEXICO52025
ComstockTEXAS52025
Ft. DavisTEXAS52025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.