BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 13 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

All regionsLower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence PlainGeneralists

House Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain has fallen sharply: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-61%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
86Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain: down 61% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 3.0–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
18Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
3.0–3295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±36.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain is projected to fall about 34% by 2030 — from 27 in 2025 to a central estimate of 18 (95% range 3.0–32). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±36.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026216.636
2027205.735
2028194.834
2029193.933
2030183.032

Routes In Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain

Routes recording House Sparrow in Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
MacdougallNEW-YORK1242025
Herner CrnsOHIO1002025
MaysvilleOHIO972012
PeruOHIO891978
LucerneOHIO842025
RandolphNEW-YORK812018
HinesburgVERMONT801994
StrongsvilleOHIO791995
GarrettsvileOHIO671991
AkeleyPENNSYLVANIA671979
PittsfieldOHIO662024
NaplesNEW-YORK642025
E YoungstownNEW-YORK612025
ChurchvilleNEW-YORK612025
HiramOHIO602025
New SomersetOHIO561993
HighlandNEW-YORK522022
West SenecaNEW-YORK522004
Slippery RkPENNSYLVANIA521994
EspyvillePENNSYLVANIA512025
St JohnsburgNEW-YORK492025
MiddlefieldOHIO492017
CayugaNEW-YORK432025
HarmonsburgPENNSYLVANIA432025
OrleansNEW-YORK402025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.