BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 63% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-63%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
135Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 62% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-74%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
7.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±61.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 74% by 2029 — from 29 in 2024 to a central estimate of 7.5 (95% range 0.00–37). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±61.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025120.0042
2026110.0041
20279.80.0040
20288.60.0038
20297.50.0037

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HudsonCOLORADO3342024
PecosTEXAS2412017
HookerOKLAHOMA2182024
Prospect ValCOLORADO1632000
PlymellKANSAS1212024
LingleWYOMING1132024
PinneoCOLORADO1122019
NunnCOLORADO1122021
DaltonNEBRASKA1082024
LamesaTEXAS1052024
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO891977
ClovisNEW-MEXICO832024
KimballNEBRASKA822022
HobbsNEW-MEXICO822024
Adams Co.COLORADO812022
JulesburgCOLORADO812021
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO641975
FrionaTEXAS622024
StilesTEXAS612024
Fort MorganCOLORADO602024
DalhartTEXAS592024
Murray LakeNEBRASKA512024
TwichellTEXAS492023
PritchettCOLORADO482024
RushCOLORADO432024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.