BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie has fallen sharply: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-59%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
136Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Shortgrass Prairie: down 59% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow In Shortgrass Prairie Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
8.1Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±66.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 76% by 2030 — from 34 in 2025 to a central estimate of 8.1 (95% range 0.00–38). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±66.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026120.0043
2027110.0041
2028100.0040
20299.20.0039
20308.10.0038

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording House Sparrow in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
HudsonCOLORADO3192025
PecosTEXAS2412017
HookerOKLAHOMA2072025
Two ButtesCOLORADO1992025
Prospect ValCOLORADO1632000
NunnCOLORADO1312025
LingleWYOMING1132024
HobbsNEW-MEXICO1052025
PlymellKANSAS1032025
MaljamarNEW-MEXICO891977
LamesaTEXAS852025
ClovisNEW-MEXICO832024
KimballNEBRASKA822025
Adams Co.COLORADO812022
JulesburgCOLORADO812021
BennettCOLORADO812025
WakaTEXAS722025
Murray LakeNEBRASKA692025
FlaglerCOLORADO682025
EllicottCOLORADO682025
TucumcariNEW-MEXICO641975
YoderWYOMING592025
RushCOLORADO562025
DoughertyTEXAS542025
Fort MorganCOLORADO522025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.