BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 36 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Tamaulipan Brushlands

All regionsTamaulipan BrushlandsGeneralists

House Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands has collapsed: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-87%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Tamaulipan Brushlands: down 87% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–9995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±220.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–99). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±220.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.000.0099
20260.000.0099
20270.000.0099
20280.000.0099
20290.000.0099

Routes In Tamaulipan Brushlands

Routes recording House Sparrow in Tamaulipan Brushlands.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ZapataTEXAS2651984
ProgresoTEXAS1442011
HondoTEXAS1092024
George WestTEXAS542024
RachalTEXAS352023
KingsvilleTEXAS322024
El SauzTEXAS252023
RaymondvilleTEXAS192024
EncinalTEXAS182010
La PryorTEXAS172017
San YgnacioTEXAS161985
GuerraTEXAS142023
Encinal 2TEXAS142024
HeidelbergTEXAS122024
RandadoTEXAS112024
Mirando CityTEXAS82024
Catarina 2TEXAS52017
CatarinaTEXAS42010
Catarina 3TEXAS42019
SejitaTEXAS42024
Millett 2TEXAS42024
Agua NuevaTEXAS32023
El IndioTEXAS32001
Pedro CreekTEXAS32003
DilleyTEXAS22024

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.