BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-70%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 70% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
14Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±48%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 41 in 2024 to a central estimate of 14 (95% range 0.00–40). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±48%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2025230.0049
2026210.0047
2027190.0044
2028160.0042
2029140.0040

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO3391995
GraytownOHIO2991984
PackertownINDIANA1902004
N BaltimoreOHIO1842019
LockportOHIO1822024
HamtramckMICHIGAN1701984
LagrangeINDIANA1602024
GrimmsWISCONSIN1482021
AdairMICHIGAN1451995
Packertown 2INDIANA1382024
EdenWISCONSIN1342024
New TroyMICHIGAN1292024
KielWISCONSIN1242022
StratfordWISCONSIN1202024
Columbia CtyINDIANA1132024
LapeerMICHIGAN1062024
OmroWISCONSIN1052001
VeronaWISCONSIN942024
S LyonsMICHIGAN911992
N AndoverWISCONSIN912024
MiddleburyINDIANA892024
OlaMICHIGAN852024
PardeevilleWISCONSIN852024
HoltMICHIGAN842024
St CharlesMICHIGAN802019

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.