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Species · BCR 23 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition

All regionsPrairie Hardwood TransitionGeneralists

House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition has fallen sharply: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-72%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
159Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has fallen sharply in Prairie Hardwood Transition: down 72% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

House Sparrow In Prairie Hardwood Transition Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-64%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–3995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition is projected to fall about 64% by 2030 — from 36 in 2025 to a central estimate of 13 (95% range 0.00–39). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
2026220.0048
2027190.0045
2028170.0043
2029150.0041
2030130.0039

Routes In Prairie Hardwood Transition

Routes recording House Sparrow in Prairie Hardwood Transition.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BismarkOHIO3391995
GraytownOHIO2991984
PackertownINDIANA1902004
N BaltimoreOHIO1842019
HamtramckMICHIGAN1701984
EdenWISCONSIN1622025
GrimmsWISCONSIN1482021
AdairMICHIGAN1451995
Packertown 2INDIANA1332025
New TroyMICHIGAN1292024
LapeerMICHIGAN1222025
FestinaIOWA1192025
Columbia CtyINDIANA1132024
OmroWISCONSIN1052001
N AndoverWISCONSIN1022025
LockportOHIO972025
S LyonsMICHIGAN911992
VickeryOHIO912025
MiddleburyINDIANA882025
LagrangeINDIANA802025
St CharlesMICHIGAN802019
HomerMICHIGAN722024
Drayton PlnsMICHIGAN711987
LimestoneOHIO692025
ChatfieldMINNESOTA681999

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.