BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 21 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies

All regionsOaks and PrairiesGeneralists

House Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies has collapsed: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-80%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
74Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Oaks and Prairies: down 80% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

House Sparrow In Oaks and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies is projected to fall about 100% by 2030 — from 18 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.0016
20270.310.0014
20280.000.0014
20290.000.0014
20300.000.0014

Routes In Oaks and Prairies

Routes recording House Sparrow in Oaks and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
BriteTEXAS992025
HobsonTEXAS822025
RhomeTEXAS822025
GrafordTEXAS522025
WeatherfordTEXAS432025
WalburgTEXAS362025
BeggsOKLAHOMA352023
OakwoodTEXAS351995
Lone OakTEXAS322022
LocoOKLAHOMA311985
HenriettaTEXAS312022
NobleOKLAHOMA302025
Thornton 2TEXAS292010
LockhartTEXAS282025
DecaturTEXAS262024
E GeorgetownTEXAS251979
SeldenTEXAS252025
CayugaTEXAS252025
CreedmoreTEXAS232014
GauseTEXAS221997
Wolfe CityTEXAS211987
ThorntonTEXAS201984
DikeTEXAS192025
Massey LakeTEXAS182025
CottonwoodTEXAS182025

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.