BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 22 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

All regionsEastern Tallgrass PrairieGeneralists

House Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

-83%Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
278Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

House Sparrow has collapsed in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-100%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–4595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±77.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 100% by 2029 — from 47 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.00 (95% range 0.00–45). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±77.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20256.90.0052
20262.90.0048
20270.000.0045
20280.000.0045
20290.000.0045

Routes In Eastern Tallgrass Prairie

Routes recording House Sparrow in Eastern Tallgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
DunlapOHIO4201988
WilmingtonOHIO4031996
ItascaILLINOIS3292024
TiptonINDIANA2701992
TecumsehOHIO2681982
Cedar ValleyIOWA2641997
AtkinsonILLINOIS2292024
CaledoniaILLINOIS1932024
Rock ValleyIOWA1922024
Sni MillsMISSOURI1881990
NewportOHIO1801994
BeaucoupILLINOIS1702024
Marion 2OHIO1662024
MuncieINDIANA1621997
BerneINDIANA1492024
New DoverOHIO1492022
DarrtownOHIO1462021
SterlingILLINOIS1422023
TarkioMISSOURI1401989
SheffieldILLINOIS1382024
WayneILLINOIS1372024
PlainfieldINDIANA1301999
DecaturINDIANA1272024
YaleILLINOIS1262024
MarionOHIO1252023

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.