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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

House Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental has increased: up 31% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+31%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
28Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

House Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
3.9Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±76.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 3.9 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±76.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20264.50.0015
20274.40.0014
20284.20.0014
20294.10.0014
20303.90.0014

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PatagoniaARIZONA242025
McnealARIZONA202025
AmadoARIZONA152025
PomereneARIZONA112025
Skull ValleyARIZONA102024
Skull Valley 2ARIZONA82025
CutterARIZONA72014
RuckerARIZONA72002
PrescottARIZONA62025
SunizonaARIZONA61996
PinetopARIZONA62021
SahuaritaARIZONA62001
Clay SpringARIZONA62025
Bartlett ResARIZONA32025
RedingtonARIZONA32022
DragoonARIZONA32009
WilliamsARIZONA22019
MaineARIZONA22013
Happy JackARIZONA22006
Carr MtnARIZONA22016
PortalARIZONA22025
Sunizona 2ARIZONA22025
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO21992
BlueARIZONA11988
Peña BlancaARIZONA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.