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Species · BCR 34 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

House Sparrow In Sierra Madre Occidental

All regionsSierra Madre OccidentalGeneralists

House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental has edged up: up 24% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+24%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
4.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±88.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 4.2 (95% range 0.00–14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±88.2%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20254.70.0015
20264.60.0015
20274.40.0015
20284.30.0014
20294.20.0014

Routes In Sierra Madre Occidental

Routes recording House Sparrow in Sierra Madre Occidental.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
PomereneARIZONA202024
McnealARIZONA192024
PrescottARIZONA152022
AmadoARIZONA122023
PortalARIZONA122006
Skull ValleyARIZONA102024
PatagoniaARIZONA92024
CutterARIZONA72014
RuckerARIZONA72002
SunizonaARIZONA61996
PinetopARIZONA62021
SahuaritaARIZONA62001
Clay SpringARIZONA62024
Tonto Vill.ARIZONA52021
Bartlett ResARIZONA52024
RedingtonARIZONA32022
DragoonARIZONA32009
WilliamsARIZONA22019
MaineARIZONA22013
Happy JackARIZONA22006
Carr MtnARIZONA22016
Vicks PeakNEW-MEXICO21992
MagdalenaNEW-MEXICO22024
BlueARIZONA11988
Peña BlancaARIZONA12010

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.