BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl

StrigidaeBirds of preyAsio flammeus

Short-eared Owl has increased: up 34% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+34%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
419RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
57Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Short-eared Owl

The Short-eared Owl (Asio flammeus) is a North American member of the Owls (Strigidae). In this analysis it is grouped with the birds of prey.

Size
5–27.5 in long (13–70 cm) — a nocturnal raptor (typical for the family)
Habitat
Open country, woodlands, cliffs and wetlands, hunting from the air or a high perch.
Diet
Live prey — small mammals, birds, reptiles, fish and large insects (carrion for vultures).
Range
Recorded on 419 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 22 states, most concentrated in the Great Basin.
Family
Strigidae · Birds of prey

Notable Short-eared Owl TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.0795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±162.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.09 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.07). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±162.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.07
20260.030.000.07
20270.030.000.07
20280.030.000.07
20290.030.000.07

Where the Short-eared Owl Is Detected

BBS routes recording Short-eared Owl, sized by most recent count.

Short-eared Owl Population Trend by State

Short-eared Owl population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alaska-54%198635
California+74%197415
Colorado-69%197424
Idaho-54%197032
Illinoisinsufficient datan/a1
Iowainsufficient datan/a1
Kansasinsufficient datan/a9
Marylandinsufficient datan/a1
Michiganinsufficient datan/a1
Minnesota+16%197113
Montana-1%197060
Nebraska+205%197913
Nevada-31%199213
North Dakota-94%197235
Ohioinsufficient datan/a1
Oklahomainsufficient datan/a2
Oregon-46%197132
South Dakota+465%197032
Utah-32%198027
Washington-16%197127
Wisconsininsufficient datan/a5
Wyoming-24%197240

Short-eared Owl Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Short-eared Owl population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
BCR 2-23%199510
BCR 3-63%19974
BCR 4-74%198619
Great Basin-8%1970123
Northern Rockies-43%197247
Prairie Potholes-83%196960
Boreal Hardwood Transition-20%19807
Badlands and Prairies+39%196982
Shortgrass Prairie+25%197934

Short-eared Owl Conservation Status

Our route-weighted index shows it up about 34% since 1969.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.