BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Washington has edged down: down 16% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-16%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Washington. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.2295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±92.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.22). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±92.5%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.23
20260.060.000.23
20270.060.000.23
20280.060.000.23
20290.060.000.22

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilbur520231983
Bickleton320041982
Tonasket319851982
Sulphur320211996
Hatton319931992
Harrington220051981
Asotin220241986
Malden220222022
Odessa220231994
Brewster120071979
Moses Lake119901976
Reardan119831971
Wapato119751975
Mercer120221969
Connell119961970
Everett119941984
Ewan119911983
Ellensburg120192011
Othello119841983
Prescott119941981
Hartline120231994
Keystone120231994
Harwood119961996
Potholes120092008
Pomeroy120011998

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.