BirdAnalyst
Species · Nebraska · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Nebraska

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Nebraska has surged: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+205%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
21YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in NebraskaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-eared Owl has surged in Nebraska: up 205% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Nebraska

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Nebraska is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-54%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.09Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.01–0.1695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±54%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Nebraska is projected to fall about 54% by 2029 — from 0.19 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.09 (95% range 0.01–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±54%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.080.010.15
20260.080.010.15
20270.080.010.16
20280.090.010.16
20290.090.010.16

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Nebraska

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Nebraska.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murray Lake720242024
Oglala Nat. Grass.520152000
Agate 2220242024
Kimball120041996
Gordon120052005
Liberty119761976
Crescent Lk119861982
Holbrook119961996
Berea119801980
Crawford120042004
Paxton119791969
Eagle Creek119901990
Agate119921992

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.