BirdAnalyst
Species · Montana · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Montana

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Montana has held roughly steady: down 1% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-1%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in MontanaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Montana. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Montana

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Montana is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-68%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.24Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Montana is projected to fall about 68% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.24 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.250.001.1
20260.250.001.1
20270.240.001.1
20280.240.001.1
20290.240.001.1

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Montana

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Montana.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Shawmut1520241982
Roundup720192019
Wheat Basin620242018
Brusett520242010
Two Dot520242015
Harlem420171987
Malta320181979
Leroy319941990
Roy320241993
Circle320151969
Flatwillow 2320142011
Jordan South320242024
Coleman Coulee320192018
Brunzell Slough320242024
Church Hill320242019
Clyde Park320242024
Hay Lake220171993
Virgelle220241979
Augusta220151979
Highwood220221974
Savage219921969
Flatwillow220081968
Ingomar220151979
Locate220241983
Willow Creek219811976

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotanebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.