BirdAnalyst
Species · Oregon · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Oregon

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Oregon has declined: down 46% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

-46%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in OregonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Oregon. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Oregon

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Oregon is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-65%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.05Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±130.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Oregon is projected to fall about 65% by 2029 — from 0.15 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.05 (95% range 0.00–0.18). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±130.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.060.000.19
20260.060.000.18
20270.050.000.18
20280.050.000.18
20290.050.000.18

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Oregon

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Oregon.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sheaville720122012
Fish Lake620241976
Flook Lake520241994
Lone Rock419981970
Joseph419771977
Blitzen 2320121994
Ordnance319791973
Modoc Point319751975
Alvord Lake320061968
Warner Vally320152010
Bowden Hills320242024
Three Forks220162009
Zumwalt220012001
Blizzard Gap220112011
Crane219971997
Fandango Can120091984
Crowley119871985
Malheur Nwr119971987
Blitzen119921980
Sparta119811971
Montague119971981
Eightmile120231988
Pendleton119981979
Princeton119821981
Adrian120181991

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomasouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.