BirdAnalyst
Species · Idaho · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Idaho

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Idaho has fallen sharply: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-54%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
49YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in IdahoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-eared Owl has fallen sharply in Idaho: down 54% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Idaho

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Idaho is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-84%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.10Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±50.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Idaho is projected to fall about 84% by 2029 — from 0.60 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.10 (95% range 0.00–0.62). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±50.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.120.000.64
20260.120.000.64
20270.110.000.63
20280.100.000.62
20290.100.000.62

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Idaho

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Idaho.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Dubois1020241968
Preston419911991
Lost River320061985
Craters320161979
Carey320102007
Twin Buttes220241986
Crane Creek220161990
Blackft Res120021998
Grangeville119861986
Kyle Canyon119951985
Circular Bu120071985
Baker120241979
Tractor Flat120241985
Cape Horn119981998
Leadore120161984
Blacks Creek120041987
Springfield119991969
Glenns Ferry119691969
Magic Mtn120102010
Acequia120071987
Sawtooth City 2120242016
Joel119971993
Iron Springs120141990
Picabo120151990
Mud Lake120191992

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.