BirdAnalyst
Species · Utah · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Utah

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Utah has declined: down 32% on the route-weighted index since 1980.

-32%Since 1980TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
27Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in UtahNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Utah. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Utah

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Utah is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-91%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.06Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.7095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±128.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Utah is projected to fall about 91% by 2029 — from 0.73 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.06 (95% range 0.00–0.70). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±128.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.090.000.73
20260.090.000.73
20270.080.000.72
20280.070.000.71
20290.060.000.70

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Utah

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Utah.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Snowville3720241999
Promontory620221996
Peplin Mountain520241999
Johnson Can320211988
Saleratus Cr219991998
Lynn219831983
Leamington219961996
Grantsville220122006
Salt Springs120221988
Timpie Spg119961982
Neponset Res120161999
E. Bear Lake120221997
Oak City119961980
Goshen120211968
Dragerton119941994
Randolph120132013
Grouse Creek120062006
Vernon120121992
Bear River120162006
Callao120151994
Jericho Junction120072006
Monticello119981998
Heber Mtn.120002000
Gold Hill120061988
Fairfield120241987

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotawashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.