BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in South Dakota has surged: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+465%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-eared Owl has surged in South Dakota: up 465% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in South Dakota is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.21Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.8695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±99.5%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in South Dakota is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 0.86 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.21 (95% range 0.00–0.86). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±99.5%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.210.000.86
20260.210.000.86
20270.210.000.86
20280.210.000.86
20290.210.000.86

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indian1020241996
Owanka719831967
S. Pioneer620241996
Promise620002000
Chamberlain519781978
White Lake419781973
Crow Creek419731973
Forbes419791978
Gorman319791979
White River319961994
Roswell220081978
Ft Thompson220001973
Britton219781978
Harding220191973
Fort Pierre220081973
Lennox119701970
Pioneer120241998
Cottonwood120241996
Broadland119671967
Railroad Butte120092004
Conde119681968
Gettysburg119941994
Long Lake119821982
Volunteer120191968
Ottumwa120151987

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonutahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.