BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in North Dakota has collapsed: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-94%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
35Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
45YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-eared Owl has collapsed in North Dakota: down 94% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2028TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.00Projected 2028 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.6895% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±64.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in North Dakota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2028, near 0.00 (95% range 0.00–0.68). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±64.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692028
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20240.010.000.69
20250.000.000.69
20260.000.000.68
20270.000.000.68
20280.000.000.68

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Lake George419791969
Cedar Creek420081971
Braddock420011993
Dickinson320101969
Stanley319781969
Golva320111979
Horsehead Lk220101981
Bowman220181979
Glen Ullin220081996
Sheyenne Lk220101994
Carson120121998
Sydney119801969
Danzig119951995
Kempton120041969
Emerado120102001
Cooperstown120021991
Buchanan119721969
Lakota120041976
Rolla119911969
Niles120231999
Regan120041976
Ft Yates119861972
Dunn Center119841969
Carpio119781969
Loraine119861986

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganminnesotamontananebraskanevadaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.