BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Minnesota has edged up: up 16% on the route-weighted index since 1971.

+16%Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
13Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
24YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Short-eared Owl Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Minnesota. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±367.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2026TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2026 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±367.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Minnesota is projected to stay roughly flat through 2026, near 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.15). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±367.3%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692026
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20220.060.000.15
20230.070.000.15
20240.070.000.15
20250.070.000.15
20260.070.000.15

Short-eared Owl Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Grygla420111990
Warroad320112001
Glyndon320002000
Erie220111993
Badger220011979
Lake Bronson220001978
Floodwood119711971
Huntley119711971
Chandler119701970
Oklee120121969
Beltrami119811974
Waskish119801980
Greenbush120212000

Short-eared Owl Population Trend in Other States

alaskacaliforniacoloradoidahoillinoisiowakansasmarylandmichiganmontananebraskanevadanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonsouth-dakotautahwashingtonwisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.