BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 17 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl In Badlands and Prairies

All regionsBadlands and PrairiesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Badlands and Prairies has increased: up 39% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

+39%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Badlands and Prairies. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl In Badlands and Prairies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-77%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.26Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±184.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Badlands and Prairies is projected to fall about 77% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.26 (95% range 0.00–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±184.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.270.001.1
20260.270.001.1
20270.260.001.1
20280.260.001.1
20290.260.001.1

Routes In Badlands and Prairies

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Badlands and Prairies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
ShawmutMONTANA152024
IndianSOUTH-DAKOTA102024
RoundupMONTANA72019
OwankaSOUTH-DAKOTA71983
Wheat BasinMONTANA62024
PromiseSOUTH-DAKOTA62000
S. PioneerSOUTH-DAKOTA62024
DaytonWYOMING62024
BrusettMONTANA52024
Two DotMONTANA52024
Oglala Nat. Grass.NEBRASKA52015
ChamberlainSOUTH-DAKOTA51978
SchoonoverWYOMING52024
Cedar CreekNORTH-DAKOTA42008
RavenWYOMING42024
LeroyMONTANA31994
RoyMONTANA32024
CircleMONTANA32015
Flatwillow 2MONTANA32014
Jordan SouthMONTANA32024
Coleman CouleeMONTANA32019
DickinsonNORTH-DAKOTA32010
GolvaNORTH-DAKOTA32011
White RiverSOUTH-DAKOTA31996
SussexWYOMING32012

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.