BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 9 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl In Great Basin

All regionsGreat BasinGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Great Basin has held roughly steady: down 8% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

-8%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
123Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Great Basin. See the full index history below.

Short-eared Owl In Great Basin Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Great Basin is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-70%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.17Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.4795% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±121.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Great Basin is projected to fall about 70% by 2029 — from 0.56 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.17 (95% range 0.00–0.47). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±121.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.170.000.48
20260.170.000.48
20270.170.000.48
20280.170.000.48
20290.170.000.47

Routes In Great Basin

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Great Basin.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
SnowvilleUTAH372024
DuboisIDAHO102024
SheavilleOREGON72012
Fish LakeOREGON62024
PromontoryUTAH62022
Flook LakeOREGON52024
Peplin MountainUTAH52024
WilburWASHINGTON52023
PrestonIDAHO41991
Lone RockOREGON41998
JosephOREGON41977
CratersIDAHO32016
CareyIDAHO32010
Lost RiverIDAHO32006
MinervaNEVADA32012
Bald Mtn.NEVADA32024
OrdnanceOREGON31979
Modoc PointOREGON31975
Alvord LakeOREGON32006
Blitzen 2OREGON32012
Warner VallyOREGON32015
Bowden HillsOREGON32024
Johnson CanUTAH32021
BickletonWASHINGTON32004
TonasketWASHINGTON31985

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.