BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 11 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl In Prairie Potholes

All regionsPrairie PotholesGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Prairie Potholes has collapsed: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

-83%Since 1969TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
60Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
53YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-eared Owl has collapsed in Prairie Potholes: down 83% on the route-weighted index since 1969.

Short-eared Owl In Prairie Potholes Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-34%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.07Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.3695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±93.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Prairie Potholes is projected to fall about 34% by 2029 — from 0.10 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.07 (95% range 0.00–0.36). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±93.9%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.070.000.36
20260.070.000.36
20270.070.000.36
20280.070.000.36
20290.070.000.36

Routes In Prairie Potholes

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Prairie Potholes.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
GryglaMINNESOTA42011
HarlemMONTANA42017
Lake GeorgeNORTH-DAKOTA41979
BraddockNORTH-DAKOTA42001
White LakeSOUTH-DAKOTA41978
Crow CreekSOUTH-DAKOTA41973
ForbesSOUTH-DAKOTA41979
GlyndonMINNESOTA32000
MaltaMONTANA32018
StanleyNORTH-DAKOTA31978
GormanSOUTH-DAKOTA31979
ErieMINNESOTA22011
BadgerMINNESOTA22001
Lake BronsonMINNESOTA22000
Hay LakeMONTANA22017
VirgelleMONTANA22024
Ester LakeMONTANA22024
Horsehead LkNORTH-DAKOTA22010
Sheyenne LkNORTH-DAKOTA22010
RoswellSOUTH-DAKOTA22008
BrittonSOUTH-DAKOTA21978
HuntleyMINNESOTA11971
ChandlerMINNESOTA11970
OkleeMINNESOTA12012
BeltramiMINNESOTA11981

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.