BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 10 · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Short-eared Owl In Northern Rockies

All regionsNorthern RockiesBirds of prey

Short-eared Owl in Northern Rockies has fallen sharply: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

-53%Since 1972TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc declinecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Short-eared Owl has fallen sharply in Northern Rockies: down 53% on the route-weighted index since 1972.

Short-eared Owl In Northern Rockies Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

n/aChange by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.04Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±140.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Northern Rockies is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.04 (95% range 0.00–0.14). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±140.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.040.000.15
20270.040.000.14
20280.040.000.14
20290.040.000.14
20300.040.000.14

Routes In Northern Rockies

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Northern Rockies.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Great DivideCOLORADO32024
Brunzell SloughMONTANA32024
Church HillMONTANA32024
Clyde ParkMONTANA32024
Patrick DrawWYOMING31974
ArmintoWYOMING32024
Crane CreekIDAHO22016
AugustaMONTANA22015
Willow CreekMONTANA21981
Wolf CreekMONTANA22017
RaynesfordMONTANA22024
Threemile WaMONTANA22009
Saleratus CrUTAH21999
FrannieWYOMING22018
MooseWYOMING21992
PathfinderWYOMING21983
Gas Hills 2WYOMING22024
YellowstoneWYOMING21988
MaybellCOLORADO12017
GrangevilleIDAHO11986
Cape HornIDAHO11998
Sawtooth CtyIDAHO12012
Sawtooth City 2IDAHO12025
KalispellMONTANA11994
St MaryMONTANA11991

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.