Species · BCR 4 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024
Short-eared Owl In BCR 4
Short-eared Owl in BCR 4 has fallen sharply: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
-74%Since 1986
19Routes In Region
27Years
Notable Signals
long arc declinecomputed index
Short-eared Owl has fallen sharply in BCR 4: down 74% on the route-weighted index since 1986.
Forecast
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in BCR 4 is projected to fall about 50% by 2029 — from 0.06 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.16). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±57.8%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.
-50%Change by 2029
0.03Projected 2029 index
0.00–0.1695% range
±57.8%Backtest error
| Year | Projected index | 95% low | 95% high |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2026 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2027 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2028 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.17 |
| 2029 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.16 |
Routes In BCR 4
| Maclaren | ALASKA | 2 | 2005 |
| Monahan | ALASKA | 2 | 1993 |
| Sourdough | ALASKA | 2 | 2017 |
| Eagle | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Toklat | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Kalifonsky | ALASKA | 1 | 2012 |
| L Salcha | ALASKA | 1 | 1984 |
| Savage | ALASKA | 1 | 2022 |
| Anchor River | ALASKA | 1 | 2008 |
| Lake Louise | ALASKA | 1 | 2000 |
| Caribou Mtn. | ALASKA | 1 | 2021 |
| Coldfoot | ALASKA | 1 | 2014 |
| Donelly Dome | ALASKA | 1 | 2005 |
| Unalakleet River | ALASKA | 1 | 1999 |
| Hather Creek | ALASKA | 1 | 2005 |
| Moose Creek | ALASKA | 1 | 2016 |
| Mt. Fairplay | ALASKA | 1 | 2017 |
| Galena (Short) | ALASKA | 1 | 2024 |
| Nabesna Road | ALASKA | 1 | 1993 |
Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.