BirdAnalyst
Species · BCR 18 · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Short-eared Owl In Shortgrass Prairie

All regionsShortgrass PrairieGeneralists

Short-eared Owl in Shortgrass Prairie has edged up: up 25% on the route-weighted index since 1979.

+25%Since 1979TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
34Routes In RegionSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable SignalsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Short-eared Owl in Shortgrass Prairie. See the full index history below.

Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-76%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.03Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.00–0.1095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±172.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Short-eared Owl in Shortgrass Prairie is projected to fall about 76% by 2029 — from 0.13 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.03 (95% range 0.00–0.10). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±172.7%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19692029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.030.000.10
20260.030.000.10
20270.030.000.10
20280.030.000.10
20290.030.000.10

Routes In Shortgrass Prairie

Routes recording Short-eared Owl in Shortgrass Prairie.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Murray LakeNEBRASKA72024
TimpasCOLORADO42005
FlemingCOLORADO32006
CheyenneCOLORADO32009
GrigstonKANSAS32008
PinneoCOLORADO21980
Last ChanceCOLORADO21983
Agate 2NEBRASKA22024
BriggsdaleCOLORADO12002
AbarrCOLORADO11980
HudsonCOLORADO12024
WaverlyCOLORADO12015
Adams Co.COLORADO12011
Gordon CreekCOLORADO11993
CampoCOLORADO12018
StonehamCOLORADO12010
AmherstCOLORADO12014
HaswellCOLORADO12005
NeegrandeCOLORADO12006
Fort MorganCOLORADO12005
EllicottCOLORADO12016
KarvalCOLORADO12002
ArsenalCOLORADO12005
Arsenal 2COLORADO12024
LakinKANSAS11997

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.