BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey

PhasianidaeGame birdsMeleagris gallopavo

Wild Turkey has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

25×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,609RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Wild Turkey

A large, ground-dwelling game bird of woodlands and clearings, the Wild Turkey has rebounded dramatically across North America after near-extirpation a century ago.

Size
39.5–49 in long, 11–24.3 lb (100–125 cm, 5–11 kg)
Habitat
Fields, brushland, prairie and the forest floor, where it forages and nests on the ground.
Diet
Acorns, seeds, fruit and insects foraged on the forest floor.
Range
Recorded on 2,609 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 48 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Phasianidae · Game birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Wild Turkey TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.98–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+21%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.98–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±12.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey is projected to rise about 21% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 0.98–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±12.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.20.891.4
20261.20.921.4
20271.20.941.5
20281.20.961.5
20291.30.981.5

Where the Wild Turkey Is Detected

BBS routes recording Wild Turkey, sized by most recent count.

Wild Turkey Population Trend by State

Wild Turkey population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+709%196987
Arizona+171%197120
Arkansas+21%197540
California37×197397
Colorado+779%199055
Connecticut+832%198617
Delaware11×199311
Florida+689%197084
Georgia+295%198187
Idaho+209%199515
Illinois25×198791
Indiana30×198651
Iowa13×197932
Kansas26×197757
Kentucky+908%199047
Louisiana-36%197738
Maine29×199942
Maryland15×197855
Massachusetts34×197928
Michigan19×197088
Minnesota+726%198666
Mississippi+193%197149
Missouri+599%197582
Montana+135%198545
Nebraska45×197263
Nevadainsufficient datan/a2
New Hampshire41×199324
New Jersey13×198632
New Mexico+291%198933
New York27×1969111
North Carolina21×197189
North Dakota+476%198340
Ohio+824%198362
Oklahoma+811%197059
Oregon26×199346
Pennsylvania11×1968115
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a3
South Carolina+756%198340
South Dakota15×197850
Tennessee+382%198348
Texas+127%1969145
Utah+43%198831
Vermont21×197825
Virginia11×197078
Washington13×199637
West Virginia+436%198156
Wisconsin228×198795
Wyoming-44%197741

Wild Turkey Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Wild Turkey population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest23×198649
Great Basin18×199643
Northern Rockies+440%198769
Prairie Potholes34×197978
Boreal Hardwood Transition22×197095
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain16×196975
Atlantic Northern Forest83×1975112
Sierra Nevada+266%199713
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+196%197284
Badlands and Prairies+487%1976100
Shortgrass Prairie+251%197552
Central Mixed Grass Prairie12×1969113
Edwards Plateau+32%197018
Oaks and Prairies+670%196956
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie35×1974224
Prairie Hardwood Transition157×1972142
Central Hardwoods+1000%1977149
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+132%197662
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+69%197730
Southeastern Coastal Plain+705%1969274
Appalachian Mountains27×1968342
Piedmont15×1971130
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast94×1982119
Peninsular Florida+803%197150
Coastal California35×197356
Sierra Madre Occidental+54%197120
Chihuahuan Desert-9%197319
Tamaulipan Brushlands+68%196923
Gulf Coastal Prairie-44%199610

Wild Turkey Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 2384% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.