BirdAnalyst
Species · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Analysis

PhasianidaeGame birdsMeleagris gallopavo

Wild Turkey has surged: up 26× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

26×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2,632RoutesSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59Years SurveyedYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

About the Wild Turkey

A large, ground-dwelling game bird of woodlands and clearings, the Wild Turkey has rebounded dramatically across North America after near-extirpation a century ago.

Size
39.5–49 in long, 11–24.3 lb (100–125 cm, 5–11 kg)
Habitat
Fields, brushland, prairie and the forest floor, where it forages and nests on the ground.
Diet
Acorns, seeds, fruit and insects foraged on the forest floor.
Range
Recorded on 2,632 Breeding Bird Survey routes across 48 states, most concentrated in the Appalachian Mountains.
Family
Phasianidae · Game birds
Conservation
Least Concern

Notable Wild Turkey TrendsNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 1.0–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+16%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.3Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.595% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±15%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey is projected to rise about 16% by 2030 — from 1.1 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.3 (95% range 1.0–1.5). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±15%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.20.911.4
20271.20.941.5
20281.20.961.5
20291.20.981.5
20301.31.01.5

Where the Wild Turkey Is Detected

BBS routes recording Wild Turkey, sized by most recent count.

Wild Turkey Population Trend by State

Wild Turkey population trend by state.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Alabama+633%196987
Arizona+277%197120
Arkansas+18%197540
California32×1973100
Colorado+655%199058
Connecticut+573%198617
Delaware12×199312
Florida+645%197084
Georgia+315%198187
Idaho+140%199515
Illinois26×198791
Indiana35×198651
Iowa18×197932
Kansas30×197757
Kentucky+847%199047
Louisiana-33%197738
Maine28×199944
Maryland14×197855
Massachusetts40×197928
Michigan20×197088
Minnesota+687%198668
Mississippi+193%197149
Missouri+524%197584
Montana+256%198546
Nebraska53×197264
Nevadainsufficient datan/a2
New Hampshire44×199324
New Jersey15×198632
New Mexico+241%198933
New York27×1969111
North Carolina21×197190
North Dakota+712%198340
Ohio+948%198363
Oklahoma+826%197059
Oregon24×199347
Pennsylvania14×1968115
Rhode Islandinsufficient datan/a3
South Carolina+928%198340
South Dakota19×197850
Tennessee+410%198348
Texas+207%1969145
Utah+14%198831
Vermont24×197825
Virginia+988%197078
Washington13×199638
West Virginia+415%198157
Wisconsin238×198795
Wyoming-31%197744

Wild Turkey Population Trend by Region

Bird Conservation Regions are the ecological unit for trends.

Wild Turkey population trend by Bird Conservation Region.
TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →Baseline yearThe first year of the smoothed window the trend is measured from. An earlier baseline means a longer record stands behind the number.Full methodology →Survey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
Northern Pacific Rainforest24×198650
Great Basin16×199644
Northern Rockies+377%198771
Prairie Potholes39×197980
Boreal Hardwood Transition24×197095
Lower Great Lakes / St. Lawrence Plain17×196975
Atlantic Northern Forest85×1975114
Sierra Nevada+347%199714
Southern Rockies / Colorado Plateau+153%197287
Badlands and Prairies+651%1976103
Shortgrass Prairie+337%197552
Central Mixed Grass Prairie15×1969114
Edwards Plateau+83%197018
Oaks and Prairies+800%196956
Eastern Tallgrass Prairie34×1974226
Prairie Hardwood Transition159×1972142
Central Hardwoods+999%1977150
West Gulf Coastal Plain / Ouachitas+115%197662
Mississippi Alluvial Valley+57%197730
Southeastern Coastal Plain+706%1969275
Appalachian Mountains30×1968343
Piedmont15×1971130
New England / Mid-Atlantic Coast99×1982120
Peninsular Florida+737%197150
Coastal California31×197357
Sierra Madre Occidental+79%197120
Chihuahuan Desert-34%197319
Tamaulipan Brushlands+189%196923
Gulf Coastal Prairie-41%199610

Wild Turkey Conservation Status

Least Concern

The IUCN Red List rates this species as Least Concern. Our route-weighted index shows it up about 2498% since 1968.

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14. Trend is a route-weighted relative-abundance index, not an absolute population.