BirdAnalyst
Species · Maine · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Maine

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Maine has surged: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

29×Since 1999TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
42Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
27YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MaineNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Maine: up 29× on the route-weighted index since 1999.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Maine

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Maine is projected to rise about 187% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+187%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±49.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Maine is projected to rise about 187% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 1.0–2.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±49.6%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19952029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.70.762.7
20261.80.822.7
20271.80.882.8
20281.90.942.9
20292.01.02.9

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Maine

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Maine.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Andover1520212014
Rome1320231997
Cape Neddick1020231995
Kittery Pt820242018
Cornville720222012
Greenwood520192006
Northfield 2520222018
Deblois520072005
Stacyville520232021
Searsport520232003
Brownfield520092009
Freedom420222003
Castine420052005
Lake Moxie420222010
Hermon320192005
Jefferson320101999
Westbrook220172004
Newcastle220232004
Hancock220092009
Aurora220212008
Greenville220222011
Biddeford120182002
Wilson Mills120242014
Bethel120162009
Turner120102002

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.