BirdAnalyst
Species · Kentucky · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Kentucky

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Kentucky has surged: up 908% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

+908%Since 1990TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
47Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in KentuckyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Kentucky: up 908% on the route-weighted index since 1990.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Kentucky

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Kentucky is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.2–3.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±94.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Kentucky is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 1.5 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.2 (95% range 1.2–3.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±94.3%, with 20% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19862029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.00.953.0
20262.01.03.0
20272.11.13.1
20282.11.13.1
20292.21.23.2

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Kentucky

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Kentucky.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Apex1320192005
Riverqueen1020242007
Lovelacevile720242011
Pleasurevill720242001
Mammoth Cave720141997
Johnsonville620211995
Mammoth Cave North520132009
Shiloh420111997
East Union420161991
Levee 2420192010
Cumberlnd Gp320181994
Keysburg320241998
Hegira320242005
Buena Vista320172003
Morganfield320242022
Million 2320242010
Lebanon Junction320182001
Sulphur Lick220232005
Sunnybrook220211994
Merrimac220231989
Eastview220242008
Dixie220192007
Plum220232008
Bays Fork220172000
Hodgenville 2220222008

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaslouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.