BirdAnalyst
Species · North Dakota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in North Dakota

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in North Dakota has surged: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+476%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in North DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in North Dakota: up 476% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in North Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.17–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-22%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.90Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.17–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±108.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in North Dakota is projected to fall about 22% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.90 (95% range 0.17–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±108.1%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19762029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.850.121.6
20260.860.141.6
20270.870.151.6
20280.890.161.6
20290.900.171.6

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in North Dakota

Routes recording Wild Turkey in North Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Montpelier1020111995
Solen1020242009
Tobacco920171987
Zap820241982
Forman720101993
Horsehead Lk720031995
Walcott620212008
Wimbledon620121992
Lake George420081986
Cooperstown420241992
Loraine419931992
Abercrombie420121997
Roosevelt Pk420191983
Turtle Mtns420241997
Nash320171999
Abercrombie 2320172014
Carson220241988
Regan220192003
Ft Yates220041989
Carpio220232001
Golva220091987
Bentley220151994
Glen Ullin220181997
Sheyenne Lk220061992
Danzig119921992

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.