BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in New Jersey has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

13×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
40YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in New Jersey: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New Jersey is projected to rise about 102% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+102%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±86.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New Jersey is projected to rise about 102% by 2029 — from 1.2 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.0–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±86.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20252.30.843.7
20262.30.893.8
20272.40.943.8
20282.41.003.9
20292.51.03.9

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Wild Turkey in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown1320121996
Toms River920222015
Six Points720241998
Friendship620242011
Winslow620221994
Greenwich420231993
Albion420212021
High Point420191981
Hope319931992
Spraguetown 3320242023
Bennett Mill 2320242024
Croton220031993
Kemah Lake220241985
Dover220231989
Cranbury220242001
Mt Misery219881988
Pedricktown 2220232013
Croton 2220242011
Woodbury Hgt120232007
Sandbrook120231993
Holmansville119951995
New Bedford120152006
Midvale120191997
Bloomsbury120151996
Pottersville120231996

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.