BirdAnalyst
Species · New Jersey · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in New Jersey

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in New Jersey has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

15×Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
32Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in New JerseyNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in New Jersey: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in New Jersey

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New Jersey is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+29%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–3.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±95.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New Jersey is projected to rise about 29% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 2.5 (95% range 1.1–3.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±95.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19812030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20262.30.873.7
20272.40.923.8
20282.40.973.8
20292.51.03.9
20302.51.13.9

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in New Jersey

Routes recording Wild Turkey in New Jersey.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pedricktown1320121996
Six Points920251998
Toms River920222015
Cranbury920252001
Friendship620242011
Albion420212021
Pomona420251987
Hope319931992
Pedricktown 2320252013
Greenwich220251993
Croton220031993
Kemah Lake220241985
Dover220231989
Mt Misery219881988
Bennett Mill 2220252024
Woodbury Hgt120232007
Sandbrook120231993
Holmansville119951995
New Bedford120152006
Midvale120191997
Bloomsbury120151996
High Point120251981
Pottersville120231996
Gillette120251999
Keyport120192001

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.