BirdAnalyst
Species · New Mexico · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in New Mexico

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in New Mexico has surged: up 291% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

+291%Since 1989TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
33Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
35YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in New MexicoNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in New Mexico: up 291% on the route-weighted index since 1989.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in New Mexico

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New Mexico is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.02–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+45%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.32Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.02–0.6195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±111.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in New Mexico is projected to rise about 45% by 2029 — from 0.22 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.32 (95% range 0.02–0.61). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±111.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19752029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.290.000.59
20260.300.010.59
20270.300.010.60
20280.310.020.60
20290.320.020.61

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in New Mexico

Routes recording Wild Turkey in New Mexico.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Cloudcroft820241975
Carrizozo620211993
Floyd420152015
Bitter Lake420222017
Capulin319931993
Cooley Lake320212004
Gallinas320211992
Laborcita319951994
Pecos220002000
Roswell220161999
Stinking Lk.219991999
Vallecitos220212018
Rosebud220212007
Bluewater Lake220121999
Claunch 2220032002
Cebolla120182007
Ojo Sarco120162014
Farley120172017
Claunch119981988
Horse Mtn120172002
Dulce120182009
Angel Fire 2120122012
Maxwell120242008
Mcgaffey120071999
Mt. Taylor120071994

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.