BirdAnalyst
Species · South Dakota · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in South Dakota

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in South Dakota has surged: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

19×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
50Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in South DakotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in South Dakota: up 19× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in South Dakota

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in South Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-23%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±35.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in South Dakota is projected to fall about 23% by 2030 — from 2.4 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±35.2%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.70.962.5
20271.80.992.5
20281.81.02.5
20291.81.12.6
20301.81.12.6

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in South Dakota

Routes recording Wild Turkey in South Dakota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Badlands1720251997
Pleasant Val920231992
White Lake820082000
Marcus820122001
Rochford820251996
Hazelrodt720251992
Winner620252003
Wilmot620251979
Ardmore620031977
Promise520121973
Cedar Pass520252000
Englewood520211992
Norbeck520012001
Silver City520001992
French Creek420031995
Lacreek420252012
Lennox320252007
Geddes320221999
Indian320231994
Reva320251991
White River320111994
Hill City320131994
Tripp220241986
Wind Cave Np220251999
Gettysburg220181996

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.