BirdAnalyst
Species · Arkansas · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Arkansas

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Arkansas has edged up: up 18% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+18%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
40Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
48YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in ArkansasNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

No notable trend signals for Wild Turkey in Arkansas. See the full index history below.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Arkansas

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Arkansas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.09–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+60%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.46Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.09–0.8295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±131.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Arkansas is projected to rise about 60% by 2030 — from 0.29 in 2025 to a central estimate of 0.46 (95% range 0.09–0.82). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±131.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.440.070.80
20270.440.080.81
20280.450.080.81
20290.450.090.82
20300.460.090.82

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Arkansas

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Arkansas.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Stamps420131994
Ravenden Springs420102010
Hughes320251967
Harrisburg320192004
Marshall320192015
Lockesburg320182015
Ramsey219871976
Locust Bayou220171974
Ozark Nf220251991
Magazine Mtn220192000
Crowley'S Ridge220242013
Saffell220192001
Stark219931987
Compton220181988
Gillett220242024
Four Lakes220011994
Old Milo120092009
Hope120032003
Ashdown120191995
West Tyler119831983
South Bend120051994
Hatfield 2120252017
Hollywood120221989
Waldron120171974
Rupert120161984

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonacaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.