BirdAnalyst
Species · Missouri · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Missouri

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Missouri has surged: up 599% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

+599%Since 1975TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
82Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
51YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MissouriNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Missouri: up 599% on the route-weighted index since 1975.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Missouri

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Missouri is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.96–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+109%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.0Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.96–3.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±75.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Missouri is projected to rise about 109% by 2029 — from 0.95 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.0 (95% range 0.96–3.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±75.4%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19712029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.90.852.9
20261.90.883.0
20271.90.913.0
20282.00.943.0
20292.00.963.0

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Missouri

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Missouri.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Warren1319801980
Lucerne1320212018
New Hampton820242014
Filley720241983
Madison720221991
Tarkio619791976
Mcfall620241994
Palace620242013
Clementine520021981
Marshfield520231994
Osage Beach520242002
Kearney520181997
Harrisonville520232017
Huntsville420241977
Williamsvill420191995
Laclede420221994
Kingsville420231998
Wesco320241977
Graydon320211978
Rockingham320221990
Stet319951995
Frazier320231998
Barks320241995
Bland320231995
Graniteville320131993

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.