BirdAnalyst
Species · Vermont · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Vermont

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Vermont has surged: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

24×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
25Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in VermontNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Vermont: up 24× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Vermont

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Vermont is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.83–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-24%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.83–2.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Vermont is projected to fall about 24% by 2030 — from 1.9 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 0.83–2.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 60% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19732030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.702.0
20271.40.732.0
20281.40.762.0
20291.40.802.1
20301.50.832.1

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Vermont

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Vermont.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
North Pownal1320251991
Bristol1220181999
Colchester1020172006
Greensboro720252001
St Johnsbury620252002
S Wallingfrd520221997
Newbury 2520232008
Stowe520242013
Post Mills420251999
Hinesburg419921992
S Reading320231990
Middlesex320252008
Landgrove220241995
Gaysville220191986
Shaftsbury220251973
W Rutland220241975
Marlboro120221990
Stratton120192011
East Haven120241998
Northfld Fls120212004
East Calais120242010
Newbury120022002
Hardwick120242007
Fletcher120222000
Grand Isle120121994

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.