BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Ohio has surged: up 824% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+824%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
62Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
41YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Ohio: up 824% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Ohio is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.57–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+39%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.57–1.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Ohio is projected to rise about 39% by 2029 — from 0.68 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.57–1.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.880.501.3
20260.900.521.3
20270.920.531.3
20280.930.551.3
20290.950.571.3

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wilgus620091995
Stonecreek520241996
Harveysburg 2520232023
Lucerne420151992
Coal Run419921992
Bloomville320242001
Pittsfield320241999
Darrtown320192019
Ray320241994
Valley City320142014
Kunkle220241996
Kingsway220242024
Zaleski S.F.220211992
Pike S.F.219961992
Smithfield220242000
Cuba220181997
Omega220051991
Scioto Furn220221998
Limestone220232017
Casstown220152009
Lockport120241996
Napoleon120151996
Wayne N.F.120222000
Shawnee S.F.119921992
Tar Hollow120231993

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.