BirdAnalyst
Species · Ohio · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Ohio

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Ohio has surged: up 948% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+948%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
63Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
42YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in OhioNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Ohio: up 948% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Ohio

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.99 (95% range 0.60–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-9%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.60–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±16.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Ohio is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.99 (95% range 0.60–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±16.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.920.541.3
20270.930.551.3
20280.950.571.3
20290.970.591.4
20300.990.601.4

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Ohio

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Ohio.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wayne N.F.1920252000
Wilgus620091995
Harveysburg 2520232023
Stonecreek420251996
Coal Run419921992
Pittsfield320241999
Lucerne320251992
Smithfield320252000
Darrtown320192019
Ray320241994
Valley City320142014
Kunkle220241996
Kingsway220242024
Zaleski S.F.220211992
Pike S.F.219961992
Kenton220252025
Dresden220251989
Cuba220181997
Omega220051991
Scioto Furn220221998
Limestone220232017
Hiram220251992
Casstown220152009
Lockport120251996
Napoleon120151996

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaoklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.