BirdAnalyst
Species · Maryland · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Maryland

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Maryland has surged: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

15×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
46YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Maryland: up 15× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Maryland is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+25%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±18.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Maryland is projected to rise about 25% by 2029 — from 1.4 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±18.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.61.02.2
20261.61.02.2
20271.71.12.3
20281.71.12.3
20291.81.12.4

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiantown1020141997
Matthews720242001
Cokesbury720241999
Potomac Park520241979
Walnut520242005
Mardela520191999
Furnace Town520242015
Davidsnville520231985
Eklo420182017
Harmony420171991
Oldtown320241970
Pomfret320242009
Easton320191999
Accident320171993
Pr Frederick320231999
Berlin220241998
Earlton220222016
Pomonkey220242002
Millington220241992
Melitota220231994
Madison220241973
Jennings220241998
Finzel220241997
Accident 2220232022
Nottingham220242007

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.