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Species · Maryland · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Maryland

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Wild Turkey in Maryland has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

14×Since 1978TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
55Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
47YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MarylandNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Maryland: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1978.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Maryland

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Maryland is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+48%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.8Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Maryland is projected to rise about 48% by 2030 — from 1.2 in 2025 to a central estimate of 1.8 (95% range 1.1–2.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19702030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.61.002.2
20271.61.02.2
20281.71.12.3
20291.71.12.3
20301.81.12.4

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Maryland

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Maryland.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Indiantown1020141997
Jennings720251998
Cokesbury620251999
Potomac Park520241979
Walnut520242005
Hughesville520251993
Mardela520191999
Newark520252003
Davidsnville520231985
Nottingham520252007
Eklo420182017
Harmony420171991
Berlin320251998
Pomfret320242009
Piney Neck320251982
Accident320171993
Earlton220222016
Millington220241992
Melitota220231994
Madison220241973
Accident 2220232022
Floyd120221979
Vindex120211979
Oldtown120251970
Williamsport120241989

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.