BirdAnalyst
Species · Tennessee · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Tennessee

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Tennessee has surged: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

+382%Since 1983TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
48Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
33YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in TennesseeNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Tennessee: up 382% on the route-weighted index since 1983.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Tennessee

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Tennessee is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.59–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+43%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.59–2.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±24.8%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Tennessee is projected to rise about 43% by 2029 — from 1.1 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 0.59–2.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±24.8%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.50.472.5
20261.50.502.6
20271.60.532.6
20281.60.562.6
20291.60.592.6

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Tennessee

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Tennessee.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Wrigley1220222001
Pond Creek1020232000
Bradyville920211999
Mansfield720242001
Collinwood720232002
Trace Lewis720162013
Signal Mtn620241989
Allens Brdge620232002
Pawpaw520092009
Petersburg520132000
Oliver Spgs520092007
Moscow420132010
Tellico420152015
Cades Cove420241991
Indian Mound319981998
Belotes Bend320182000
Glen320232001
Newfound Gap320212011
Big Sandy220242000
Campbellsville220171997
Peytonsville220242004
Silver Pt220221998
Mt Olive220192006
Mecca220161999
Trace Collinwood220182018

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.