BirdAnalyst
Species · Illinois · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Illinois

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Illinois has surged: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1987.

25×Since 1987TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
91Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in IllinoisNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Illinois: up 25× on the route-weighted index since 1987.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Illinois

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Illinois is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.78–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+30%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.2Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.78–1.695% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±40.9%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Illinois is projected to rise about 30% by 2029 — from 0.92 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.2 (95% range 0.78–1.6). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±40.9%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19782029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.10.691.5
20261.10.711.5
20271.10.731.6
20281.20.761.6
20291.20.781.6

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Illinois

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Illinois.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pawnee820232019
Mt Vernon820141999
York820242014
Marshall820242003
Mill Creek720242000
Belknap620241978
Clarksdale520232008
Brownville520241995
Guilford420231990
Cameron420242024
Belleview420231987
Yale420231995
Lake Galena420212003
Grape Creek420242004
Buda320222013
Janesville320192019
Troy Grove320162016
Sandusky320222002
Fairdale320242019
Atkinson219961993
Sherburnvill220212011
Gulfport220241996
Mackinaw220112011
Dailey220191995
Melrose219981992

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.