BirdAnalyst
Species · Florida · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Florida

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Florida has surged: up 689% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+689%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
84Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
52YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in FloridaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Florida: up 688% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Florida

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Florida is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.58–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.99Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.58–1.495% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±34.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Florida is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.70 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.99 (95% range 0.58–1.4). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±34.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.920.511.3
20260.940.531.4
20270.960.541.4
20280.970.561.4
20290.990.581.4

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Florida

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Florida.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Sunniland Gr1220192006
Wildernes Pk1020131992
Kenansville720231971
Indiantown720162001
Babcock Rnch719891989
Mossy Head620111997
Nobleton620191993
Doctor Inlet520072006
Betts520162000
Callahan520242006
Kissimmee520221987
Crewsville520232002
Green Swamp520231987
Sanderson420162006
Devils Gardn420241989
Mt. Olive420242003
Seminole Hills 2420222014
Ocala420241993
Steinhatchee320091988
Dale Mabry319841982
Myakka Head320102002
Blackwater320111987
Defuniak Spr320211995
Hildreth319981998
Sandy320151989

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawaregeorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.