BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Virginia has surged: up 988% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

+988%Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
56YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Virginia: up 988% on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.97 (95% range 0.68–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+5%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.97Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.68–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±14%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Virginia is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 0.97 (95% range 0.68–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±14%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20260.910.621.2
20270.920.641.2
20280.940.651.2
20290.950.671.2
20300.970.681.2

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Natural Brid1020251980
Pine Mtn.1020151999
Star Tannery920251980
Elamsville820061984
Covington520231986
White Stone520251978
Chincoteag W520241995
Hall420232005
Newsoms420241993
Big Meadows420221993
W Augusta320251967
Churchville320242006
David320111979
Quinby320251993
Cornland320142014
Pungo320232018
Potts Mtn.320131992
Cape Charles320171998
Taylorstown220041991
Jerome220161982
Partlow220001986
Isom220111984
Mannboro220191982
Church Road220181977
Irisburg220131988

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.