BirdAnalyst
Species · Virginia · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Virginia

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Virginia has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

11×Since 1970TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
78Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
55YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in VirginiaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Virginia: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1970.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Virginia

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Virginia is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.66–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+41%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.95Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.66–1.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±13.3%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Virginia is projected to rise about 41% by 2029 — from 0.67 in 2024 to a central estimate of 0.95 (95% range 0.66–1.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±13.3%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19672029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.890.601.2
20260.900.621.2
20270.920.631.2
20280.930.651.2
20290.950.661.2

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Virginia

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Virginia.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Star Tannery1119881980
Pine Mtn.1020151999
Elamsville820061984
Quinby620221993
Covington520231986
Chincoteag W520241995
W Augusta420001967
Hall420232005
Newsoms420241993
Big Meadows420221993
Churchville320242006
David320111979
Natural Brid320241980
Cornland320142014
Pungo320232018
Rural Retrt320241982
Potts Mtn.320131992
Cape Charles320171998
Taylorstown220041991
Stanley219781978
Jerome220161982
Partlow220001986
Isom220111984
Amherst220241984
Mannboro220191982

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontwashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.