BirdAnalyst
Species · Delaware · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Delaware

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Delaware has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1993.

11×Since 1993TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
11Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
26YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in DelawareNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Delaware: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1993.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Delaware

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Delaware is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.86–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-31%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
2.1Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.86–3.395% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±44.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Delaware is projected to fall about 31% by 2029 — from 3.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 2.1 (95% range 0.86–3.3). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±44.1%, with 40% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19912029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.80.613.1
20261.90.673.1
20272.00.733.2
20282.00.793.2
20292.10.863.3

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Delaware

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Delaware.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pepperbox1020162000
Pepperbox 2620242017
Millsboro520242017
Milton320111992
Harrington220241996
Blackbird220241994
Frederica120131991
Frankford120121992
Holleyville120001995
Holleyville 2120192007
Georgetown120222015

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutfloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.