BirdAnalyst
Species · Minnesota · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Minnesota

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Minnesota has surged: up 726% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

+726%Since 1986TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
66Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
36YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in MinnesotaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Minnesota: up 726% on the route-weighted index since 1986.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Minnesota

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Minnesota is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-15%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.6Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–2.295% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±29.2%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Minnesota is projected to fall about 15% by 2029 — from 1.9 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.6 (95% range 1.0–2.2). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±29.2%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19802029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.872.0
20261.50.912.1
20271.50.942.1
20281.60.982.1
20291.61.02.2

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Minnesota

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Minnesota.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chatfield 21120242005
St Stephen1020082001
Floodwood1020242014
Minnetonka920242002
Chokio North920242004
Brainerd920232008
Hartland820172000
Appleton820232005
Wylie820242010
Brook Park820242003
Whitewater820001997
Money Creek620241988
Princeton620241986
Knapp620242007
Cromwell620242015
Redwood Fall520132000
Wigwam Bay520232013
Evergreen520242006
Lakeville420212001
Tenney420162016
Oklee420192019
Debs420232018
Sherburne Nr420242000
Badger420182018
Frontenac420191993

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganmississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.