BirdAnalyst
Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania has surged: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

11×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
58YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Pennsylvania: up 11× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+44%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.0–1.995% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±23.6%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania is projected to rise about 44% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.5 (95% range 1.0–1.9). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±23.6%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.40.931.8
20261.40.961.8
20271.40.981.9
20281.41.01.9
20291.51.01.9

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Rush1220241981
Greentown1020231983
Duvall620211997
Munson620231994
Williamsburg620231990
St College620241974
Espyville520222002
Plesant Grov520241993
Wakena520211979
Shelocta520241989
Peru Mills520241992
Carsonville520151983
Jeannette520221979
Mount Joy520212016
Bow Bridge420221983
Millville420241991
Susquehanna420241998
Warrens Mill420241971
Lovelton420242000
Sproul Sf-A420232002
Sproul Sf-B420232004
Harmonsburg320231998
Rasselas320221969
Roulette320161970
Waller320241983

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.