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Species · Pennsylvania · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Pennsylvania

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania has surged: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

14×Since 1968TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
115Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
59YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in PennsylvaniaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Pennsylvania: up 14× on the route-weighted index since 1968.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Pennsylvania

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 1.1–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

-8%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.5Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
1.1–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±20.7%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.5 (95% range 1.1–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±20.7%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19662030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.40.971.8
20271.41.001.9
20281.51.01.9
20291.51.11.9
20301.51.12.0

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Pennsylvania

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Pennsylvania.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Pine Gr Mill1820251969
Greentown1020231983
Roulette 2920252023
N Washington820251978
Arnot720251970
Canadensis720252002
Lynch620251968
Millville620251991
Duvall620211997
Shelocta620251989
Cherry Sprs520251977
Rush520251981
Plesant Grov520241993
Wakena520211979
Peru Mills520241992
Carsonville520151983
Jeannette520221979
Mount Joy520212016
Wyalusing520251991
Tussey Mtn.520251993
Susquehanna420241998
Geeseytown420251987
Sproul Sf-A420232002
Sproul Sf-B420232004
Harmonsburg320231998

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonrhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.