BirdAnalyst
Species · Washington · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Washington

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in Washington has surged: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

13×Since 1996TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
37Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
30YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in WashingtonNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in Washington: up 13× on the route-weighted index since 1996.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in Washington

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.73 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+7%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
0.73Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.32–1.195% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±38.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in Washington is projected to stay roughly flat through 2029, near 0.73 (95% range 0.32–1.1). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±38.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19872029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20250.660.251.1
20260.680.271.1
20270.690.291.1
20280.710.301.1
20290.730.321.1

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in Washington

Routes recording Wild Turkey in Washington.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Chewelah1420212001
Bay View1020132013
Odessa920242024
Pomeroy820241998
Northport820242002
L Pend O Nwr720211996
Twisp620222006
Leavenworth620232011
Deer Park420151997
Keller320072003
Turnbull Nwr320212005
Snowden320241999
Ellensburg320212016
Reardan220242010
Wilbur220242004
Nighthawk220222014
Malden220242012
Omak Creek220242010
Laurier220222001
Carnation220182018
Lake Chelan219921992
E. Mt. Adams120042004
Cougar120232023
Asotin120192006
Sullivan Lake 2120212021

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-carolinanorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.