BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2025 Release · 1966–2024

Wild Turkey Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGeneralists

Wild Turkey in North Carolina has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

21×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
89Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
38YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in North Carolina: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in North Carolina is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.80–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+36%Change by 2029TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2029 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.80–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±28.1%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in North Carolina is projected to rise about 36% by 2029 — from 1.0 in 2024 to a central estimate of 1.4 (95% range 0.80–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±28.1%, with 80% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682029
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20251.30.681.9
20261.30.711.9
20271.30.741.9
20281.40.772.0
20291.40.802.0

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Wild Turkey in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
Hallsboro1420172006
Cypress Lakes1220222021
Dortches1120231995
Lake Surf1120242007
Rowland1020242007
Waco920221997
Dismal Swamp920242002
California 2720242014
Spring Hope620242006
Wards Corner520232006
Fontana520211997
Reelsboro520182003
Broad Creek520221995
Cayton520242010
Marshall420242009
Jackson420171999
Congleton420222016
Bethel420192018
Cullowhee320232022
Milltail Cr320182009
Flay320221998
Hendersonvil320242005
Jarvisburg 2320222007
Cherokee320172011
Speed220232000

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-05-22.