BirdAnalyst
Species · North Carolina · BBS 2026 Release · 1966–2025

Wild Turkey Population Trend in North Carolina

All statesGame birds

Wild Turkey in North Carolina has surged: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

21×Since 1971TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
90Routes In StateSurvey routesHow many standard-protocol BBS routes contributed counts. More routes means a steadier, better-sampled index; very thin coverage is suppressed.Full methodology →
39YearsYears surveyedNumber of years with at least one standard-protocol run in this geography. A longer record makes the trend more reliable.Full methodology →

Notable Wild Turkey Trends in North CarolinaNotable signalsLong-arc shifts the engine flags automatically — sustained declines or increases large enough to stand out from year-to-year noise.Full methodology →

long arc increasecomputed indexTrend sourceWhether the figure is our own computed route-weighted index or an official USGS modeled estimate. The current build labels every trend as computed.Full methodology →

Wild Turkey has surged in North Carolina: up 21× on the route-weighted index since 1971.

Wild Turkey Population Forecast in North Carolina

If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.85–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.

+0%Change by 2030TrendPercent change in the route-weighted abundance index between a smoothed baseline window and the most recent one. It tracks direction, not absolute population.Full methodology →
1.4Projected 2030 indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →
0.85–2.095% range95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
±21.4%Backtest errorBacktest errorTypical error when we hold out the most recent years, forecast them, and compare to what actually happened. Lower means a more trustworthy projection.Full methodology →
If the recent trend holds, Wild Turkey in North Carolina is projected to stay roughly flat through 2030, near 1.4 (95% range 0.85–2.0). A 5-year backtest shows a typical error of ±21.4%, with 100% of held-out values landing inside the 95% band.19682030
Projection of the recent trend (dashed) with 80/95% bands — a projection, not a prediction. Habitat, climate, and land use are not modeled.
YearProjected indexProjected indexThe central forecast of the abundance index if the recent trend continues. A projection of the current trajectory, not a prediction.Full methodology →95% low95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →95% high95% rangeThe 95% uncertainty band around the projection at the forecast horizon. The true value should land inside it most of the time.Full methodology →
20261.30.731.9
20271.40.761.9
20281.40.792.0
20291.40.822.0
20301.40.852.0

Wild Turkey Survey Routes in North Carolina

Routes recording Wild Turkey in North Carolina.
Recent countThe raw number of individuals recorded on this route in its most recent survey year. A single-route tally, not a trend.Full methodology →
California 21820252014
Hallsboro1420172006
Cypress Lakes1220222021
Rowland1020242007
Waco920221997
Broad Creek920251995
Dismal Swamp920242002
Lake Surf720252007
Cherokee720252011
Jarvisburg 2620252007
Wards Corner520232006
Fontana520211997
Reelsboro520182003
Dortches520251995
Cayton520242010
Montague420251994
Flay420251998
Marshall420242009
Jackson420171999
Congleton420222016
Bethel420192018
Washington420252001
Rose320252024
Cullowhee320232022
Milltail Cr320182009

Wild Turkey Population Trend in Other States

alabamaarizonaarkansascaliforniacoloradoconnecticutdelawarefloridageorgiaidahoillinoisindianaiowakansaskentuckylouisianamainemarylandmassachusettsmichiganminnesotamississippimissourimontananebraskanevadanew-hampshirenew-jerseynew-mexiconew-yorknorth-dakotaohiooklahomaoregonpennsylvaniarhode-islandsouth-carolinasouth-dakotatennesseetexasutahvermontvirginiawashingtonwest-virginiawisconsinwyoming

Source: USGS North American Breeding Bird Survey, retrieved 2026-08-14.